Revenue Analysis Definitions
Last Updated: March 2026
Data Sources
Roger's Revenue Analysis is built from order-level data synchronized from Shopify's Orders API. Raw order data is ingested and aggregated on a regular cadence to power the Revenue Analysis reporting.
- Source: Shopify Orders API
- Refresh Cadence: Every 15 minutes
- Scope: All orders across all integrated storefronts
- Currency: All monetary values are converted to USD using daily exchange rates matched to the order's local date
Revenue Waterfall Overview
The Revenue Waterfall visualizes how revenue flows from its maximum potential value (the full list price of everything ordered) down to the revenue that has been shipped and confirmed. Each step in the waterfall deducts a category of loss or risk, giving you a clear picture of where revenue is being retained, discounted, refunded, or held up in fulfillment.
The waterfall reads left to right as follows:
- Gross Sales: Full list-price revenue before any deductions
- Discounts: Value given away through promotions, codes, and automatic discounts
- Refunds: Money returned to customers after purchase
- Net Sales: Revenue retained after discounts and refunds
- Unshipped Sales (Current): Net revenue from unfulfilled lines still within SLA
- Unshipped Sales (Delayed): Net revenue from unfulfilled lines that are past their SLA due date
- Fulfilled Sales: Net revenue from lines that have been shipped
Metric Definitions
1. Gross Sales USD
The full list-price value of all items ordered before any discounts or refunds are applied. This represents the maximum revenue potential of the order as if every item sold at its original price.
- Calculation: The full list-price value of all items ordered, with any applied discounts added back to recover the pre-discount total, converted to USD.
- Why it matters: Without a true gross baseline, discount and refund percentages are meaningless. Gross Sales anchors the entire waterfall.
2. Total Discounts USD
The total monetary value of all discounts applied to the order, including automatic promotions, discount codes, and manual price reductions. Shown as a loss step in the waterfall: revenue voluntarily given away to drive sales.
- Calculation: The total monetary value of all discounts applied to the order, converted to USD.
- KPI: Discounts % of Net Sales Lost: Total Discounts USD ÷ Net Sales USD. Measures how much of your earned revenue was given away in promotions.
3. Refunds USD
The total amount refunded to the customer across all refund types, including customer returns and non-return refunds. This covers post-discount line item refunds from returned or cancelled items as well as non-product related order adjustments such as refunded shipping charges. Stored as a positive number representing money returned.
- Calculation: The total amount returned to customers across all refund transactions, converted to USD.
- Over-refunds: In cases where the total refund exceeds the post-discount order subtotal (e.g. a full product refund plus shipping refunded), Net Sales USD will be negative. These are legitimate and expected: see the Refunds documentation for additional detail.
- KPI: Refunds % of Net Sales Lost: Refunds USD ÷ Net Sales USD. Helps to understand the average share of sales that are returned to the customer.
4. Net Sales USD
The revenue retained after all discounts and refunds. This is the central metric of the Revenue Analysis: the amount your business has actually earned from this set of orders.
- Calculation: Revenue after discounts have been applied, minus any amounts refunded to customers, converted to USD.
- Why discounts aren't subtracted again: The order subtotal Roger receives from Shopify is already post-discount. Subtracting discounts a second time would double-count them and produce incorrect values: discounts are instead captured as a separate waterfall step above.
- Relationship to Gross Sales: Net Sales = Gross Sales − Total Discounts − Refunds
5 & 6. Unshipped Sales: Current & Delayed
Unshipped Sales represents net revenue from order lines that have not yet been fulfilled. It is split into two segments to distinguish between revenue that is simply in process versus revenue that is at elevated risk due to a fulfillment delay.
Unshipped Sales (Current)
Net revenue from order lines that are unfulfilled but still within their SLA due date. This is normal in-process revenue: the order is being picked, packed, or staged for shipment.
- Calculation: The sum of net line revenue for all order lines that have not yet been shipped and remain within their expected fulfillment window, converted to USD.
- Note on line-level price: At the line level, the unit price used is the current selling price on Shopify at the time of sale (not the compare-at (strikethrough) price or any other reference price) so subtracting the line discount once produces the correct net value with no double-counting.
Unshipped Sales (Delayed)
Net revenue from order lines that are unfulfilled and past their SLA due date. This is revenue at elevated risk: these orders are late and may generate cancellations, and refunds if not resolved promptly.
- Calculation: The sum of net line revenue for all order lines that are unfulfilled and past their expected ship date, converted to USD.
- KPI: Unshipped Sales % of Net Sales At Risk: (Unshipped Current + Unshipped Delayed) ÷ Net Sales USD. Measures the share of earned revenue not yet shipped.
7. Fulfilled Sales USD
The net revenue from order lines that have been shipped. This is the final step in the waterfall: revenue that has been earned, collected, and dispatched to the customer. It represents the clearest signal of realized revenue in the reporting period.
- Calculation:
net_sales_usd − unshipped_revenue_usd - Why it matters: A wide gap between Net Sales and Fulfilled Sales indicates a large volume of orders sitting in your warehouse: a leading indicator of revenue at risk of cancellation and fulfillment bottlenecks.
Revenue KPIs
The four KPI cards displayed above the waterfall provide a quick-read summary of revenue health across the reporting period.
Revenue Retention
The share of gross list-price revenue that was ultimately earned and shipped to customers. This is the headline metric for revenue efficiency: it captures the combined impact of discounts, refunds, and unshipped orders against your full revenue potential.
- Formula:
Fulfilled Sales USD ÷ Gross Sales USD - Interpretation: A rate of 87% means that for every dollar of full-price revenue initiated, $0.87 has been earned and shipped after accounting for discounts, refunds, and unshipped orders.
Discounts: % of Net Sales Lost
The portion of net revenue that was surrendered through promotional discounting. Tracks the cost of promotions relative to realized revenue.
- Formula:
Total Discounts USD ÷ Net Sales USD
Refunds: % of Net Sales Lost
The portion of net revenue returned to customers through refunds. A rising refund rate can signal product quality issues, fulfillment errors, or address/delivery failures.
- Formula:
Refunds USD ÷ Net Sales USD
Unshipped Sales: % of Net Sales At Risk
The share of earned net revenue that has not yet been shipped. This includes both on-time unshipped orders (in process) and delayed unshipped orders (at risk). A high percentage warrants a review of warehouse throughput and fulfillment SLAs.
- Formula:
(Unshipped Current + Unshipped Delayed) ÷ Net Sales USD
Data Integrity Notes
- Order subtotals from Shopify reflect prices after discounts are applied. Roger accounts for this in every revenue calculation: Gross Sales represents the pre-discount value, while Net Sales works from the post-discount subtotal without subtracting discounts a second time.
- Currency conversion is applied using the daily exchange rate for the order's local date. If no rate is found for a given currency and date, a conversion factor of 1.0 is used as a fallback, which may affect non-USD storefronts.
- Negative Net Sales values are expected only for orders where the total refund exceeds the post-discount subtotal: typically when shipping or tax was included in the refund. These are not data errors.
- Unshipped revenue is calculated at the line level and aggregated to the order. An order with a mix of fulfilled and unfulfilled lines will have both Fulfilled Sales and Unshipped Sales contributions.